FEB 2020: PREDICTIVE POLICING
Current Research for Public Forum Debate Class…
TOPIC: Predictive Policing
Resolved: Predictive policing is unjust.
Shared Folder: Research Folder [2020-03&04] = Predictive Policing.
BACKGROUND:
Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations,
Rand Corporation [Report: Executive Summary], 2013
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR233/RAND_RR233.sum.pdf
Predictive policing is the application of analytical techniques – particularly quantitative techniques – to identify likely targets for police intervention and prevent crime or solve past crimes by making statistical predictions. Several predictive policing methods are currently in use in law enforcement agencies across the United States, and much has been written about their effectiveness. Another term used to describe the use of analytic techniques to identify likely targets is forecasting. Although there is a difference between prediction and forecasting, for the purposes of this guide, we use them interchangeably.1
Foot Note (from RAND): 1The most common distinction is that forecasting is objective, scientific, and reproducible, whereas prediction is subjective, mostly intuitive, and nonreproducible. According to this distinction, the methods described in this report are essential forecasting methods. However, the law enforcement community has used predictive policing to describe these methods, so it is the term favored here.
Can predictive policing help stamp out racial profiling?,
Ben Green, Harvard University, April 17, 2019
https://cyber.harvard.edu/story/2019-04/can-predictive-policing-help-stamp-out-racial-profiling
\”Predictive policing is often hailed as a scientific solution to otherwise-intractable issues of policing, such as racial profiling. Yet as with many technologies that appear to provide a quick fix to complex social and political challenges, predictive policing promises far more than it can deliver — and actually exacerbates the problems that it claims to solve. Studies by the think tank the RAND Corporation, conducted in Shreveport, Louisiana, in 2012 and Chicago in 2013, found no statistical evidence that these programs actually reduce crime. And despite proclamations that the algorithms are objective and race-neutral, they have the potential to entrench and legitimize discriminatory police practices.\”
REQUIRED RESEARCH VIDEOS:
How the LAPD Uses Data to Predict Crime,
Wired Magazine, May 22, 2018 [12 mins]
https://www.wired.com/story/los-angeles-police-department-predictive-policing/
IMPORTANT: Please watch the entire video!!! (and simply skim the article!).
How Data Analysis Is Driving Policing
NPR News, June 25, 2018 [7 min]
https://www.npr.org/2018/06/25/622715984/how-data-analysis-is-driving-policing
Note: There is a transcript for you to create evidence from (based on what you heard).
REQUIRED RESEARCH ARTICLES:
The Police Are Using Computer Algorithms to Tell If You’re a Threat,
Prof. Andrew Guthrie Ferguson, Columbia University, TIME Magazine, October 3, 2017
https://time.com/4966125/police-departments-algorithms-chicago/
Note: Ferguson is a professor of law at the University of the District of Columbia School of Law and the author of The Rise of Big Data Policing: Surveillance, Race, and the Future of Law Enforcement.
How data-driven policing threatens human freedom,
The Economist, June 4, 2018
https://www.economist.com/open-future/2018/06/04/how-data-driven-policing-threatens-human-freedom
Note: This article is an excerpt and interview with Andrew Ferguson, from Columbia University Law School, he is the author of “The Rise of Big Data Policing.”
California Police Using AI Program That Tells Them Where to Patrol, Critics Say It May Just Reinforce Racial Bias,
Newsweek, March 11, 2019
https://www.newsweek.com/california-police-artificial-intelligence-predictive-policing-predpol-santa-1358508
NOTE: The video is not relevant to our debate topic.
Pitfalls of Predictive Policing,
Jessica Saunders, U.S. News & World Report, October 7, 2016
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-10-07/chicagos-predictive-policing-program-isnt-a-cure-all-for-violent-crime
Note: Jessica Saunders is a senior criminologist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and an author of “Predictions put into practice: A quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago’s predictive policing program,” published in September in The Journal of Experimental Criminology.
OPTIONAL RESEARCH ARTICLES/VIDEOS:
[VIDEO] Predictive Policing: Forecasting Crime with Big Data,
National Law Enforcement Museum, February 19, 2019 [86 min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_JYA3QOCcc
IMPORTANT: These are four TOP experts discussing the issue (youtube provides a transcript).
Predictive Policing – The Role of Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations,
Walter L. Perry, et al, Rand Corporation & National Institute of Justice, 2013
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR233/RAND_RR233.pdf
Can predictive policing help stamp out racial profiling?,
Ben Green, Harvard University, Boston Globe, April 17, 2019
https://www2.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2019/04/17/can-predictive-policing-help-stamp-out-racial-profiling/7GNaJrScBYu0a5lUr0RaKP/story.html
Can ‘predictive policing’ prevent crime before it happens?,
Science Magazine, September 28, 2016
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/can-predictive-policing-prevent-crime-it-happens
Predictive Policing: The Future of Law Enforcement?,
National Institute of Justice, June 22, 2010
https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/predictive-policing-future-law-enforcement
Column: Why big data analysis of police activity is inherently biased,
PBS Newshour, May 10, 2017
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/column-big-data-analysis-police-activity-inherently-biased
Does Predictive Policing Lead to Biased Arrests?,
P. Jeffrey Brantingham, Statistics and Public Policy, February 2018
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2330443X.2018.1438940
5 lessons learned from the predictive policing failure in New Orleans,
Anna Johansson, Venture Beat Magazine, March 19, 2018
https://venturebeat.com/2018/03/19/5-lessons-learned-from-the-predictive-policing-failure-in-new-orleans/
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CONTACT INFORMATION (Coach Bill):
Bill Eddy,
coachbill@magnetacademy.com
714.655.8135 (I prefer text)
When contacting me, please include your name and class information (day/time). Thanks!